“Baked In” Global Warming Higher than Thought

“Baked In” Global Warming refers to the amount of warming that will occur due to the gasses (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) already put into the atmosphere. This is also referred to by scientists as “committed warming”. In a recently published paper in Nature, scientists have determined that the amount of warming due to already released gasses will exceed the goal of 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial temperatures.

While alarming, this need not be catastrophic, say the scientists in interviews. If we can rapidly reach net-zero carbon emissions, the speed at which warming is occurring will slow. This will give society time enough to make adjustments to cope with the effects of warming.

Leaders are Emerging

How to reach net-zero is difficult. Any attempt has to go through replacing the internal combustion engine in vehicles and the heating and cooling of housing. As is frequently the case in the US, the state of California is in the lead. They have adopted a policy goal of banning the sale of internal combustion vehicles after 2035. They already are in the lead in terms of current sales of electric vehicles in the US.

California is now studying the elimination of the use of natural gas in the home. The state has already required the use of solar electric panels on all new construction and is now planning for the eventual elimination of gas for cooking and heating. This will be a gradual process but it will eliminate another large source of warming gasses.

Norway is another stellar example of the move toward net-zero carbon emissions. An incredible 80% of new light-vehicle registrations in November 2020 were of pure electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles. Overall, Norway’s light-vehicle sales in 2020 were 54% pure electric and 83% electric including hybrids.

Along these lines, Germany produced more than 50% of its energy from renewable sources in the first quarter of 2020, compared to just over 11% for the US in 2019.

The world must observe and emulate leaders like California, Norway, and Germany. It is the only way to avoid the possibly catastrophic effects that Baked In global warming can bring.